𝌎Bayes Theorem

Bayes' theorem is a formula that yields the probability of an event or the truth of a hypothesis conditioned on the observation of evidence, given priors about the likelihood of the hypothesis, the observation, and the observation conditioned on the hypothesis.



Bayes' theorem describes how an observation should be transformed into evidence that updates a prior:

P(A|B) = P(B|A) P(A) / P(B)

Where A is a hypothesis, B is an observed event, P(A|B) is the posterior probability of the hypothesis conditioned on the observation, P(B|A) is the probability of the observation if the hypothesis were true, P(A) is the prior probability of the hypothesis being true, and P(B) is the prior probability of observing the event.